President’s Day 08′: EVEN IN TEXAS: ADVANTAGE OBAMA – Post No. 021808-2

Clinton Baggage

By Dick Morris And Eileen McGann

While polls still show Hillary leading Obama in Texas and also in Ohio, her lead will likely fade and likely disappear by the time their primaries are held two weeks hence.

If Obama wins in Wisconsin, he’ll probably also carry Ohio, a state with very similar demographics. Neither state has much in the way of Hispanic voters (Only 2% of Ohio is Latino) or recent immigrants, the two key groups that gave Hillary the edge in California, Arizona, and New Mexico.

But it is more plausible to look for a Hillary victory in Texas where the population is 36% Hispanic. But even here, key obstacles lie in her path.

Most importantly, 67 of the 193 delegates from Texas to be chosen on March 4th will be selected in Iowa-style caucuses with the balance voted in a primary to be held on the same day. Hillary has only carried two of nine caucus states and admittedly does poorly in that format. She claims that her weakness in caucuses is due to the inability of her single female voters to spend the time at a caucus on a weekday evening or to find child care even if they want to go. Perhaps. But Obama’s candidacy, generating rock star enthusiasm especially among young voters, certainly seems to generate the kind of commitment that leads voters to want to attend caucuses. It’s obviously easier to get people to spend twenty minutes voting near their homes than to spend three hours travelling to caucus locations and attending their meeting.

Texas and Ohio also permit Independents to vote in their Democratic primary. Texas even allows Republicans to do so. With the Republican nomination largely decided, there is little to draw these voters to the McCain-Huckabee battle and much to induce them to enter the Democratic primary to vote against the candidate so many of them love to hate. The Texas primary will assume the aspect of a general election so heavy will be the crossing over and nobody could expect Hillary Clinton to carry Texas in a general election.

If Hillary loses both Ohio and Texas, she will probably have to drop out of the race. If she loses either, she will lose her last opportunity to catch Obama.

After Texas, it’s all downhill for Hillary. The states which follow March 4th (except for Puerto Rico) are largely devoid of Hispanics. They include Southern states like Mississippi, North Carolina, and Kentucky and western states, akin to those Obama has already carried like Wyoming, South Dakota, and Montana. In Pennsylvania and Indiana, Obama’s star power, the lack of a Latino population, and his momentum should assure victories. Hillary will win Puerto Rico and perhaps West Virginia, but her victories will be few and far between.

So Obama will probably gain a net of more than 100 delegates in the days after Ohio and Texas which, added to his current lead of over 100 delegates, would be enough to assure him the nomination.

Will the super delegates rescue Hillary? Unless they were to go for her overwhelmingly, by almost 3:1, they would not be enough to tip the balance. More likely, they would tend to flake away from Hillary, frightened to ignore the wishes of the voters of their district. Voting for Hillary when your voters want Obama might be the easiest way to buy yourself a primary fight and possible defeat at the next election. And these super delegates, after all, are politicians.

1 comment
  1. Hank Wilfong said:

    I think I had an epiphany last night. I won’t be sure until I go to a dictionary to see exactly what that means.

    Meanwhile, I think I saw the distinct possibilities of “The Dream Team” of the Race To The White House. Many would not have thought it so, 2 years ago. I would not have thought it so, even two months ago. But, something happened last night, in that masterful debate over in Texas.

    “SOMETHING’S MISSING IN HER GUMBO.” That’s the way Donna Brazille described it. I think she hit it right on the head. And, I believe Hillary Clinton now “gets it”. I think Hillary Clinton is now ready to accept the fact that a certain part of history will escape her. But, another part of history is in her grasp. Hillary Clinton could become the first female Vice President of the United States of America.

    She has the ability to have her moments and “connect” with people’s emotions, in a positive way. Still “something’s missing in her gumbo”. We saw it last night. I think she saw it. And, I believe Barack Obama “felt” it last night.

    The explosion many expected last night, that I fully expected last nigh, did NOT happen. Barack Obama would not let it happen. He showed a tremendous ability to control his emotions, and to influence those around him. He showed judgment ability, as astute as I have seen. He was, indeed,”Presidential”. And, she, she had her moments. Still “something is missing in her gumbo”.

    There was never any doubt in my mind that she could be Vice President. The question I had is WOULD she be Vice President. It hit me last night.

    She’s young enough to run for President eight years from now. Eight years from now she could be the first female President of the United States of America. How ironic that the possible role that many saw for Barack, could now be the role that Hillary is, now, suited for.

    As to Barack Obama’s performance last night, he was simply AWESOME!!! He was off the charts in a couple of instances. He showed a firm command of things, when he answered one of the questioners assertions. “Absolutely not so”, I think was the way he put it. This was in response to the assertion that there was something untoward in the fact that Obama had been somehow secretive in his gaining of “earmarks” for his state.

    Obama pointed out that he was “very open” in showing the earmarks he had “gained for his state”. “Transparency”, was Obama’s concern about “earmarks”. He made it reasonable, almost one’s duty, to go out and win things for his constituents. He made it very clear that people had the ability to spot “bridges and highways that go to nowhere”. That folk could tell the difference between that, and what he “earmarked” for Illinois.

    And, the way he handled that one about the commander in chief. “I would not have run for President if I did not think I was ready.” Then he went on to explain the importance of “making the right decisions, judgment over experience”.

    I heard the edges of something last night that firms up my conviction that this particular race will not be much longer. It hit me too as to why it ought not be much longer. Is it just me, or did you notice, too. She never went for the jugular. He didn’t give her much chance. But, there were a couple instances when I detected a “pull back” by her. At the same time, Wyllene and I both noticed, he did not hammer her like we expected he might. Oh, he got in a couple good body blows (Wyllene commented on a “move” she physically made, as he landed one.), but he never went for the knockout. They were both saving their knock out punches for a certain Conservative Senator from Arizona.

    He said, “Hillary and I were friends before this campaign, and we’ll be friends afterwards.” And, I swear I could almost hear him say, “And I think she’ll make a very good Vice President of The United States of America.”

    YES WE CAN!!!!!

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